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Geometric mean

The geometric mean is the n-th root of the product of n positive values. It is the correct average for multiplicative processes such as investment returns over multiple periods, and is always at or below the arithmetic mean.

ByHoang TruongUpdated

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An investment gains 50% in year one and loses 33% in year two. The arithmetic mean of these returns, 8.5%, looks like healthy growth, but €100 invested actually becomes €150 after year one and only €100.50 after year two, essentially flat. The geometric mean, about 0.25% a year, is the rate that truly reproduces this outcome.

Where it fits
TopicDescriptive StatisticsAdvancedSubjectData Analysis & StatisticsAdvanced

The formula

LaTeX
GM=(i=1nxi)1/nGM = \left(\prod_{i=1}^{n} x_i\right)^{1/n}

Variables

Positive values in the series
Number of values

The geometric mean equals the arithmetic mean only when all values are identical; otherwise it is always lower. The gap widens as variability in the series increases.

LaTeX
rGM=(i=1n(1+ri))1/n1r_{GM} = \left(\prod_{i=1}^{n}(1+r_i)\right)^{1/n} - 1

Variables

Return in period i expressed as a decimal (e.g. 0.10 for 10%)
Number of periods

This is the single constant rate that, compounded over n periods, reproduces the actual cumulative return. The arithmetic average of period returns always overstates it when returns vary.

Check yourself

PracticeCORE

An investment portfolio achieves a return of +60% in year 1 and −40% in year 2. What is the approximate geometric mean annual return over the two years?

Select an answer to check your understanding.