Geometric mean
The geometric mean is the n-th root of the product of n positive values. It is the correct average for multiplicative processes such as investment returns over multiple periods, and is always at or below the arithmetic mean.
See it move
An investment gains 50% in year one and loses 33% in year two. The arithmetic mean of these returns, 8.5%, looks like healthy growth, but €100 invested actually becomes €150 after year one and only €100.50 after year two, essentially flat. The geometric mean, about 0.25% a year, is the rate that truly reproduces this outcome.
The formula
Variables
- Positive values in the series
- Number of values
The geometric mean equals the arithmetic mean only when all values are identical; otherwise it is always lower. The gap widens as variability in the series increases.
Variables
- Return in period i expressed as a decimal (e.g. 0.10 for 10%)
- Number of periods
This is the single constant rate that, compounded over n periods, reproduces the actual cumulative return. The arithmetic average of period returns always overstates it when returns vary.
Check yourself
An investment portfolio achieves a return of +60% in year 1 and −40% in year 2. What is the approximate geometric mean annual return over the two years?